Analysts of the Nordea Group and OJSC Nordea Bank held a press-conference in Moscow

02.11.2012

Analysts of the Nordea Group and OJSC Nordea Bank held a press-conference in Moscow

A press-conference devoted to the current situation in and perspectives of the global and Russia’s economy was held in Moscow on 02 November 2012.

 

The press-conference was held by Steen V. Grøndahl, Head of Global Research of the Nordea Group, and analysts of OJSC Nordea Bank.

Steen V. Grøndahl shared his views on the current situation in the world economy, presented his understanding of the challenges to be addressed in the near future. Dmitri Savchenko, Leading Analyst of OJSC Nordea Bank, made a presentation on the Russia’s economy and domestic financial markets, their perspectives effected by internal and external factors.

Steen Grøndahl: ‘Our forecast for the 2013 global economic growth remains optimistic. The world GDP will grow by 3.1% in 2012 and by 3.5% in 2013, according to our estimates. The growth points will still be in the emerging markets, i.e. China, Latin America and Russia. The USA may keep its growth rate at almost 2%, if the fiscal issue is successfully addressed in 2013. Now the companies are cautious in making investments due to uncertainty on the eve of the US presidential elections and an open issue of the next year taxes. Conversely, when we get unambiguous answers to these two questions, the economy may be additionally stimulated not only by the QE program, but also by a growth in the corporate sector. In our opinion, the real estate market has also passed its trough and will begin its full-fledged recovery in 2013.

We anticipate that this year the European economy will still be in recession, but next year it may witness a 0.6% growth in GDP. The Eurozone will, probably, maintain its integrity.

China will keep its growth rates above 7%. The rumours about the bubble in the Chinese real estate market are definitely exaggerated. Private consumption will become the most powerful engine of the economy’.

Dmitri Savchenko: ‘Russia has good chances to keep growth rates above 4% next year. Its consumer sector will remain the main driver of economic growth. Out attitude to the risk of Rouble depreciation has significantly changed, and in the long run the Rouble still has growth potential. In the short run the Rouble may fluctuate around its current value. We anticipate that in the middle of the year 2013 the Dollar / Rouble rate will be at the level of 29.5.

The Bank of Russia will still pursue its targeted inflation policy. The money market rates will be still growing, although we do not expect any steep rise in the rates. Liquidity in the banking system will remain tight, nevertheless we have no choice but to get used to it, there is no way back’.

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